상세정보

스포츠 구단들은 스타 선수의 존재가 일반 선수와 비교하여 팀의 매력을 높일 수 있기 때문에 마케팅 성과를 위해 스타 선수를 보유하는 것의 중요성을 강조해 왔다. 많은 연구가 이들의 경기적 기여를 통한 경제적 가치를 평가했지만 비경기적 기여, 즉 인기 효과의 가치를 측정한 연구는 많지 않다. 이에 본 연구에서는 슈퍼스타가 전성기에 해외로 진출한다는 점에서 자연실험이 가능한 한국프로야구 데이터와 인기 효과의 유의성을 추론할 수 있는 베이지안 합성대조법을 사용하여 인기 효과의 경제적 가치를 측정하였다. 팀 성적이 관중 수요에 미치는 영향을 통제한 후 관중 수를 살펴본 결과, 슈퍼스타들의 이적이 유의한 감소를 초래하지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 한국프로야구에 스타 선수의 인기 효과가 존재하지 않는다는 점을 시사한다.

Sports teams have placed great emphasis on the significance of having a star player for achieving marketing success. This is because a star player can enhance a team’s appeal more effectively than an ordinary player. While many studies quantify superstars’ economic values based on their contribution to the team performance, they seldom account for the fact that some fans are simply attracted by their existence, although this type of contribution, namely the popularity effect, is also managerially important. In this research, we identify a superstar’s popularity effect on sports attendance demand using a unique dataset from the Korea Baseball Organization (KBO). The KBO data contains a natural experiment in which superstars transfer to foreign leagues in their primes. We investigate whether they significantly decreased home-team attendances when they left Korea after controlling the effect of team performance on them. Using Bayesian synthetic control method that facilitates statistical inference on such treatment effect, we find that the effects of their transfers are not significant. This implies that star players’ popularity effect on sports attendance demand does not exist in KBO.

ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... i
국문 초록 ......................................................................................................................... ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................... iii
LIST OF TABLES .......................................................................................................... v
LIST OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... vi
1. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................................... 1
2. LITERATURE ............................................................................................................ 3
2.1 Theory of Superstars .......................................................................................... 3
2.2 Synthetic Control Method .................................................................................. 4
3. MODEL AND SIMULATION STUDY...................................................................... 8
3.1 Model Specification ........................................................................................... 8
3.1.1 Standard SCM (SSCM) ........................................................................... 9
3.1.2 Augmented SCM (ASCM) .................................................................... 10
3.1.3 Modified SCM (MSCM) ....................................................................... 11
3.1.4 Modified Augmented SCM (MASCM).................................................. 12
3.2 Simulation Study ............................................................................................. 13
3.2.1 Simulation Design ................................................................................. 13
3.2.2 Simulation Results ................................................................................ 13
4. EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS......................................................................................... 16
4.1 Background ..................................................................................................... 16
4.2 Data and Model-free Evidence ......................................................................... 18
4.3 Estimation Results ........................................................................................... 24
4.3.1 Main Analysis: Present (Periods 1 & 3) vs Absent (Period 2)................. 24
4.3.2 The Leaving-star Analysis (Period 1 vs Period 2) .................................. 26
4.3.3 The Returning-star Analysis (Period 2 vs Period 3)................................ 28
4.4 Robustness Check ............................................................................................ 30
4.5 Extension to Other Star Players ........................................................................ 31
5. CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................... 33
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................. 35
APPENDICES .............................................................................................................. 38
A. Estimation Algorithms ...................................................................................... 38
A.1 SSCM and ASCM ................................................................................... 38
A.2 MSCM and MASCM .............................................................................. 39
B. Pre-treatment fits (RMSPEs) of SSCM, ASCM, MSCM and MASCM .............. 40
C. Simulation Study in the Case of Large P ........................................................... 41