상세정보

본 논문은 터키의 통화정책을 분석하기위해 새케인스주의 소규모 개방경제 모델을 추정하여 그 효과를 검토한다. 인플레이션 목표제는 선진국과 신흥국 모두에서 물가 안정을 유지하기 위한 효과적인 정책수단으로 널리 인식되어 왔다. 터키도 이러한 실효성을 입증했지만, 한편으로는 정책당국이 통화정책의 주요 조건과 기본적인 전달과정을 고려하지 않으면 정책실패를 야기하고, 인플레이션이 안정화되지 않음을 보여주었다. 또한, 본 연구는 터키의 대안적 통화정책 기조와 정책 입안자들이 직면한 과제를 분석한다. 

This paper examines the effectiveness of monetary policy in Turkey using an estimated new Keynesian small open economy model with nominal frictions. Inflation targeting has been widely recognized as an effective framework for maintaining price stability in both advanced and emerging economies. While Turkey has also demonstrated the effectiveness of this regime, it has also shown that ignoring key framework conditions and basic transmission mechanisms can lead to policy failure and uncontrolled inflation. 
This study also investigates the alternative monetary policy stance in Turkey, and the challenges faced by policymakers.

ABSTRACT   i
국문 초록   ii
LIST OF TABLES   iv
LIST OF FIGURES   v
1 INTRODUCTION   1
 1.1 Overview of Monetary Policy in Turkey   1
 1.2 Literature Review   2
2 A SIMPLE SMALL OPEN-ECONOMY MODEL   3
 2.1 Households   3
 2.2 Domestic Producers   6
 2.3 Retail Firms   7
 2.4 International Risk Sharing   8
 2.5 General Equilibrium   8
 2.6 Log-Linear Approximation to the Model   9
 2.7 Foreign Block   11
3 DATA   12
4 ESTIMATION SET UP   13
 4.1 Baseline   13
 4.2 Farmer et.al (2015)   13
 4.3 Bianchi and Nicolo (2021)   14
 4.4 Estimation   15
5 RESULTS   17
 5.1 Estimation of structural parameters   17
 5.2 Monetary Policy rule parameters   18
 5.3 Pre & Post-2010 Monetary Policy Stance   19
 5.4 Qualitative comments on the estimation results   21
 5.5 Recent inflation process in Turkey   22
6. CONCLUSION   23
REFERENCE    24
APPENDIX A   26
APPENDIX B   42