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Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts

Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts (Loan 1 times)

Material type
단행본
Personal Author
Duke, Annie, 1965-.
Title Statement
Thinking in bets : making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts / Annie Duke.
Publication, Distribution, etc
New York :   Portfolio/Penguin,   c2018.  
Physical Medium
276 p. : ill. ; 22 cm.
ISBN
9780735216358 (hardback)
요약
"Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"--
Bibliography, Etc. Note
Includes bibliographical references (p. 241-266) and index.
Subject Added Entry-Topical Term
Management games. Decision making.
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010 ▼a 2017042666
020 ▼a 9780735216358 (hardback)
020 ▼z 9780735216365 (epub)
035 ▼a (KERIS)REF000018518105
040 ▼a DLC ▼b eng ▼c DLC ▼e rda ▼d DLC ▼d 211009
050 0 0 ▼a HD30.6 ▼b .D85 2018
082 0 0 ▼a 658.4/0353 ▼2 23
084 ▼a 658.40353 ▼2 DDCK
090 ▼a 658.40353 ▼b D877t
100 1 ▼a Duke, Annie, ▼d 1965-.
245 1 0 ▼a Thinking in bets : ▼b making smarter decisions when you don't have all the facts / ▼c Annie Duke.
260 ▼a New York : ▼b Portfolio/Penguin, ▼c c2018.
300 ▼a 276 p. : ▼b ill. ; ▼c 22 cm.
504 ▼a Includes bibliographical references (p. 241-266) and index.
520 ▼a "Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result. In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck? Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making? Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes. By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run"-- ▼c Provided by publisher.
650 0 ▼a Management games.
650 0 ▼a Decision making.
945 ▼a KLPA

Holdings Information

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No. 1 Location Main Library/Western Books/ Call Number 658.40353 D877t Accession No. 111797907 Availability Available Due Date Make a Reservation Service B M

Contents information

Author Introduction

애니 듀크(지은이)

컬럼비아대학에서 심리학 박사학위를 받고 펜실베이니아대학에서 인지과학을 공부했다. WSOP(월드 시리즈 오브 포커)와 NBC National Heads-Up Poker Championship에서 모 우승한 유일무이한 여성 플레이어이며 WSOP의 역사상 최고 누적상금 수상(여성 플레이어 부문)을 기록했다. 씨티은행, 메리어트, 투자관리 컨설턴트 협회(IMCA)를 비롯해 세계적인 기업 임원에게 의사결정 전략, 감정 제어, 불확실성 수용과 백업 플랜 같은 다양한 주제로 강연을 하고 컨설팅을 제공했다. 2016년에는 미국에서 가장 권위 있는 과학박물관 프랭클린 연구소의 이사진에 합류했다. 비영리단체 The Alliance for Decision Education와 How I Decide를 창립하여 청소년에게 합리적인 의사결정 교육 서비스를 제공했고 전 세계 난민 구호를 위해 자선 활동을 활발 하게 펼치고 있다. 현재 필라델피아에 거주하고 있으며 현명한 의사 결정을 위한 강연, 미디어 출연, 저술 활동에 매진하고 있다.

Information Provided By: : Aladin

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