CONTENTS
Foreword / Carl B. Albert = xi
Preface = xiii
1. What? = 3
The Start of the Third Wave = 3
The Meaning of Democracy = 5
The Waves of Democratization = 13
The Issues of Democratization = 26
2. Why? = 31
Explaining Waves = 31
Explaining Democratization Waves = 34
Explaining the Third Wave = 40
Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma = 46
Economic Development and Economic Crises = 59
Religious Changes = 72
New Policies of External Actors = 85
Demonstration Effects or Snowballing = 100
From Causes to Causers = 106
3. How? Processes of Democratization = 109
Authoritarian Regimes = 110
Transition Processes = 121
Transformations = 124
Guidelines for Democratizers 1: Reforming Authoritarian Systems = 141
Replacements = 142
Guidelines for Democratizers 2: Overthrowing Authoritarian Regimes = 149
Transplacements = 151
Guidelines for Democratizers 3: Negotiating Regime Changes = 162
4. How? Characteristics of Democratization = 164
The Third Wave Democratization Syndrome = 164
Compromise and the Participation / Moderation Trade-off = 165
Elections: Stunning and Otherwise = 174
Low Levels of Violence = 192
5. How Long? = 208
Consolidation and Its Problems = 208
The Torturer Problem: Prosecute and Punish vs. Forgive and Forget = 211
Guidelines for Democratizers 4: Dealing with Authoritarian Crimes = 231
The Praetorian Problem: Rebellious and Powerful Militaries = 231
Guidelines for Democratizers 5: Curbing Military Power, Promoting Military Professionalism = 251
Contextual Problems, Disillusionment, and Authoritarian Nostalgia = 253
Developing a Democratic Political Culture = 258
Institutionalizing Democratic Political Behavior = 265
Conditions Favoring Consolidation of New Democracies = 270
6. Whither? = 280
Third Wave Causes: Continuing, Weakening, Changing? = 281
A Third Reverse Wave? = 290
Further Democratization: Obstacles and Opportunities = 294
Economic Development and Political Leadership = 315
Notes = 317
Index = 343
