CONTENTS
Preface = ⅴ
A. Introduction = 1
B. Manpower development planning in perspective and retrospect = 4
1. Main objectives and subject areas of training needs assessment = 4
2. Manpower forecasting as a tool of training needs assessment = 6
3. The experience of lLO-sponsored manpower planning projects = 7
C. Training needs assessment as a process = 10
1. Analysing processes requires data flows = 10
2. Feeding flows through labour market signalling = 13
3. Upgrading labour market signalling capacity = 15
D. The need for partnership between manpower and vocational training planners = 17
1. The raison d' e ^ tre for joint responsibility = 17
2. The past record - an uneasy relationship = 19
3. Directions and prospects of improvements = 22
E. The case for an institutional basis = 24
1. The main issues involved = 24
2. The need for an annual plan or programme = 26
3. The specification of tasks in an annual programme = 27
F. The problem of methodology = 31
1. Conventional methodologies = 31
(a) Demand side = 32
(ⅰ) The manpower requirements approach = 32
(ⅱ) Rate-of-return analysis = 33
(ⅲ) Normative methods = 34
(ⅳ) The employer survey method = 35
(ⅴ) The international comparison method = 37
(ⅵ) Econometric models = 37
(ⅶ) Input-output model approach = 38
(b) Supply side = 39
2. New approaches in labour market signalling and manpower analysis = 40
(a) Assessment of job advertisements = 41
(b) Selective labour turnover surveys = 42
(c) The key informants approach = 44
(d) The signalling potential of tracer studies = 49
G. An analytical framework for manpower development issues = 52
1. Major occupational groups(public and private sector) = 52
(a) High-level manpower = 53
(ⅰ) The public sector = 53
(ⅱ) The private sector = 54
(b) Middle-level manpower = 55
(ⅰ) The public sector = 55
(ⅱ) The private sector = 56
(c) Semi-skilled and unskilled manpower = 57
(ⅰ) The public sector = 57
(ⅱ) The private sector = 59
2. Special, sectoral and subsectoral analyses = 60
(a) The construction sector = 60
(b) Project preparation = 62
(c) Manpower development planning in agricultural／rural development = 64
(ⅰ) An outline of rural manpower assessment and planning = 65
(ⅱ) A manual on trained manpower for agricultural and rural development = 67
H. Summary and main orientations = 69
I. References and notes = 76
