CONTENTS
Preface = xiii
Acknowledgements = xiv
Introduction = xv
1 Populations and samples = 1
1.1 Populations = 1
1.2 Samples = 2
1.3 How to choose a (simple) random sample = 4
Summary = 7
Exercises = 7
2 Tabular and graphical summaries of data = 9
2.1 Introduction = 9
2.2 Kinds of data = 9
2.3 Summarizing qualitative data = 10
2.4 Summarizing quantitative data = 14
2.5 Population distributions for continuous variates = 20
Summary = 21
Exercises = 22
3 Numerical summary of data-sample statistics = 33
3.1 Measures of location = 33
3.2 Which measure of location? = 35
3.3 Variance and standard deviation = 36
3.4 Notation = 37
3.5 Grouped data = 38
3.6 Variability of sample means = 41
Summary = 42
Exercises = 43
4 Association between variables = 46
4.1 Introduction = 46
4.2 Correlation = 47
4.3 Simple linear regression = 49
4.4 A real association? = 56
4.5 Cause and effect = 59
Summary = 59
Exercises = 59
5 Testing hypotheses = 65
5.1 Introduction = 65
5.2 Probability = 65
5.3 Probability distributions = 67
5.4 Testing a hypothesis = 72
5.5 Problems of hypothesis testing = 78
5.6 Estimation = 80
Summary = 81
Exercises = 81
6 Published statistics = 85
6.1 The collection of data = 85
6.2 UK published statistics = 86
6.3 Reliability = 90
6.4 Consistency = 91
6.5 Official statistics in the developing countries = 92
Summary = 94
Exercises = 94
7 Delving in tables = 95
7.1 Introduction = 95
7.2 Tabular presentation = 95
7.3 Writing about tables = 97
Summary = 98
Exercises = 98
8 Changes with time-index numbers = 103
8.1 Introduction = 103
8.2 Simple indices = 103
8.3 Weighted indices = 104
8.4 Comments on the Laspeyres(L) and Paasche(P) indices = 106
8.5 Changing the base = 106
8.6 UK Index of Retail Prices = 107
8.7 UK Index of Industrial Production = 108
Summary = 109
Exercises = 109
9 Demography-introduction = 111
9.1 The importance of demographic studies = 111
9.2 Dynamics of population change = 112
9.3 Demographic transition = 112
9.4 Age-sex profiles = 113
9.5 Cohorts = 119
Summary = 120
Exercises = 120
10 Components of population change = 122
10.1 Death = 122
10.2 Marriage = 130
10.3 Fertility(live births) = 131
10.4 Migration = 133
Summary = 134
Exercises = 134
11 Population projection = 139
11.1 Reliability of projections = 139
11.2 An example = 140
Summary = 142
Exercises = 142
12 Changes with time-times series = 144
12.1 Introduction = 144
12.2 Smoothing times series = 144
12.3 Components of time series = 147
Summary = 150
Exercises = 150
13 Data analysis and the computer = 152
13.1 The computer = 152
13.2 The analysis = 153
Summary = 160
Exercises = 160
14 Social surveys = 161
14.1 The basic framework = 161
14.2 Pilot study = 161
14.3 Methods of data collection = 162
14.4 Confidentiality = 165
14.5 Questionnaire design = 165
14.6 Analysis = 170
14.7 The report = 171
Summary = 171
Exercises = 172
15 Schemes of investigation = 174
15.1 Introduction = 174
15.2 Problems = 174
15.3 Matching = 179
15.4 Randomization = 180
Summary = 181
Exercises = 181
16 Controlled experiments = 183
16.1 Twin studies = 183
16.2 'Blocking' = 184
16.3 Confounding = 186
16.4 Factorial treatment combinations = 186
16.5 Clinical trials = 188
Summary = 189
Exercises = 189
17 Sampling schemes = 191
17.1 Introduction = 191
17.2 Systematic sampling = 191
17.3 Simple random sampling from a sequence = 192
17.4 Stratified sampling = 193
17.5 Multistage sampling = 195
17.6 Quota sampling = 198
17.7 Standard errors = 198
Summary = 199
Exercises = 199
18 Longitudinal studies and interrupted time series = 201
18.1 prevalence = 201
18.2 Incidence = 201
18.3 Cross-sectional versus longitudinal surveys = 202
18.4 Interrupted time series studies = 203
Summary = 208
Exercises = 209
19 Smoking and lung cancer = 210
19.1 Introduction = 210
19.2 Experiments = 210
19.3 published figures = 210
19.4 Retrospective studies = 211
19.5 Prospective studies = 211
Summary = 212
Exercises = 212
20 An overview = 214
Glossary of symbols = 217
Index = 219
